Middle East War Escalation

Dated events

1. Oct. 19, 1973 · Arab oil embargo announced during Yom Kippur War
   Arab oil-producing countries declared they would stop shipping oil to the United States and other nations supporting Israel during the ongoing Yom Kippur War. This threatened to cut off a huge share of the world's oil supply, making businesses and governments fear fuel shortages and rising energy costs. Over the following months, oil prices jumped dramatically and many Western economies fell into a painful slowdown.
2. Aug. 2, 1990 · Iraq invades Kuwait, threatening Middle East oil supply
   Iraq's military invaded and occupied Kuwait, a small but oil-rich neighbor, putting Saddam Hussein in control of a large portion of the world's oil reserves. Governments and companies worried that further conflict could disrupt oil shipments from the entire Persian Gulf region, and people moved their money into gold and away from stocks. Oil prices stayed high for months until a U.S.-led coalition drove Iraq out of Kuwait in early 1991.
3. Jan. 3, 2020 · U.S. kills Iranian General Soleimani in Baghdad drone strike
   The United States killed Qasem Soleimani, Iran's most powerful military commander, in a drone strike at Baghdad airport. People feared Iran would retaliate and that a wider war could break out in the Middle East, threatening oil shipments through the region. Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq days later, but both sides stepped back from further escalation and tensions gradually eased.
4. Oct. 9, 2023 · Markets react to Hamas attack on Israel over the weekend
   On the first trading day after Hamas launched a large surprise attack on Israel on October 7, killing roughly 1,200 people, markets opened with oil prices climbing and gold rising as investors looked for safer places to put their money. The fear was that the conflict could spread to involve Iran or other regional powers, which would disrupt oil production and shipping. Over the following weeks, oil and gold stayed elevated as Israel launched a major military operation in Gaza.
5. April 13, 2024 · Iran launches drones and missiles directly at Israel
   For the first time ever, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles directly at Israeli territory in retaliation for an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Syria. This was a dramatic escalation because a direct war between Iran and Israel could shut down oil routes through the Persian Gulf and destabilize the entire region. Israel and its allies intercepted nearly all the projectiles; Israel answered with a much smaller strike on Iran on April 19, and both sides then stepped back, which calmed fears of a wider war.

Assets named in this scenario · 13

BAE SystemsBitcoin (BTC)BPBrent oil · Brent Crude Oil FuturesOil · Crude Oil (WTI) FuturesEni S.p.A.Gold · Gold FuturesRepsolRheinmetallShellSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustTotalEnergies SEUS Dollar (USD)

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