Historical market scenarios: what happened in past shocks

AI Investment Cycle

AI infrastructure spending waves: chipmakers and data-center suppliers rally on capex announcements, then wobble when spending or monetization is questioned.

21 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Sharp Altcoin Declines

Risk-off episodes where smaller crypto assets fall much harder than bitcoin: liquidity dries up first at the long tail.

48 assets

• Crypto

1997 Asian Financial Crisis

1997-style emerging-Asia currency collapses: pegs break, capital flees, IMF steps in; contagion tests every emerging market at once.

5 assets

• Forex
• Funds
• Stocks

Australia's Market & Economic Decisions

Market-wide moves on the Australian Securities Exchange that come from inside Australia rather than from a single company: a Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate decision, a budget or political surprise, or a sudden swin…

10 assets

Auto Industry Developments

Car tariffs, EV price wars and demand slumps that hit carmakers and their suppliers from Tokyo to Stuttgart and Detroit at the same time.

15 assets

• Stocks

Banking Crisis

Bank failures in the style of Lehman in 2008 or Silicon Valley Bank in 2023: trust between banks dries up, lenders' shares fall together, and money moves to government bonds, gold and sometimes bitcoin.

21 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Funds

UK Rates & Government Bonds

Bank of England decisions and UK gilt market shocks: sterling, UK banks, insurers and property names move first when yields jump or inflation surprises.

12 assets

• Forex
• Stocks
• Funds

Bitcoin Halving

Roughly every four years the reward for securing the Bitcoin network is cut in half, so fewer new coins reach the market: talk of scarcity grows for months before and after, and earlier cycles are compared closely.

3 assets

• Crypto

Borsa Istanbul & Regulatory Decisions

Market-wide moves on Borsa Istanbul that come from inside Turkey rather than from a single company: a central bank change, political news, decisions by the market regulator, fund liquidations or index-wide circuit break…

12 assets

Brazil's Market & Economic Decisions

Market-wide moves on Brazil's exchange (B3) that come from inside Brazil rather than from a single company: a Copom decision on the Selic rate by the Central Bank of Brazil, a budget or fiscal-rule surprise, or an elect…

10 assets

Canada's Market & Economic Decisions

Market-wide moves on the Toronto Stock Exchange that come from inside Canada rather than from a single company: a Bank of Canada rate decision, a federal budget or trade-policy surprise, or a political shock. On those d…

11 assets

China's Economy & Stimulus

Chinese growth scares (property crisis, weak data) and the stimulus packages that follow: Chinese equities, industrial metals and exporters swing on both.

45 assets

• Stocks
• Commodities
• Forex
• Funds

Commodity Supercycle

2003-2008-style commodity booms: years of underinvestment meet surging demand; energy, metals and grains rise together for years.

11 assets

• Commodities
• Stocks
• Funds

Crypto Exchange Crisis

A large exchange fails or is hacked, as FTX did in 2022: withdrawals stop, customers cannot reach their coins, and selling spreads to every coin as people ask which platform is next.

52 assets

• Crypto

Crypto Regulation Crackdown

A government or regulator moves against crypto with bans, lawsuits against exchanges or new licensing rules: trading venues restrict access, smaller coins fall hardest, and the sector waits for the court or the final ru…

52 assets

• Crypto

Currency Peg Abandonment

2015 Swiss-franc-style peg removals: a central bank abandons a currency floor overnight and the pair gaps double digits in minutes.

6 assets

• Forex
• Commodities

Cyberattack & Tech Outage

Large-scale cyberattacks, ransomware waves and global IT outages: victim companies drop, cybersecurity vendors catch a fear bid, operational-dependence risk gets repriced.

16 assets

• Stocks
• Funds
• Crypto

US Debt Ceiling Standoff

US debt-ceiling brinkmanship: default is unthinkable yet priced for days; T-bill yields kink, ratings agencies threaten, and relief rallies follow the deal.

4 assets

• Stocks
• Funds
• Commodities
• Forex

Defense Spending

Rearmament cycles and NATO budget pledges that lift defense contractors in Europe, Japan and the US together, and sink them when peace talks or budget cuts arrive.

13 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Dollar Strength Cycle

Periods when the US dollar strengthens broadly: pressure on commodities, emerging-market currencies and non-US earnings.

41 assets

• Forex
• Commodities
• Stocks
• Funds

Dot-Com Bust

2000-style tech bubble unwind: profitless growth stocks fall for years while boring cash-flow businesses hold up far better.

5 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

ECB Rate Decision

European Central Bank meetings that move the euro, eurozone bank margins and rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and real estate. Cuts and hikes reprice bank lending income first, then everything financed in euros.

19 assets

• Forex
• Stocks
• Funds

Election Uncertainty

Major election run-ups and contested results: policy-sensitive sectors whipsaw, volatility rises into the vote and typically deflates after clarity.

6 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Funds

Emerging Market Currency Stress

Sharp depreciation episodes in emerging-market currencies: capital outflows, import inflation and central-bank intervention.

22 assets

• Forex
• Commodities

Energy Crisis

Gas supply cuts, pipeline disruptions and power shortages: energy prices spike, energy producers rally while energy-importing economies and their currencies suffer.

21 assets

• Commodities
• Stocks
• Forex
• Funds

European Luxury Demand Cycle

Luxury demand swings driven by Chinese and American shoppers, tourism and currency: LVMH, Hermes, Kering and Richemont results set the tone for the whole sector.

9 assets

• Stocks

Fed Rate Cut

Periods when the Fed cuts rates or signals it will: borrowing gets cheaper, and markets watch how risky assets and bond yields react. An emergency cut in a crisis and a routine cut are different situations.

8 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Forex
• Funds

Fed Rate Hike

Periods when the US Federal Reserve raises rates or signals it will: borrowing gets dearer, and markets watch how risky assets and the dollar react.

9 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Forex
• Funds

Flash Crash

2010-style intraday collapses: prices fall violently within minutes on broken market plumbing, then mostly snap back the same day.

4 assets

• Stocks
• Funds
• Crypto

Food & Agriculture Shock

Drought, crop failure, export bans or a spike in grocery prices: food and household-staple companies face input-cost and pricing-power pressure while shoppers trade down.

24 assets

• Stocks
• Commodities
• Funds

Geopolitical Crisis & War

War, invasion, or major military conflict periods: gold and dollar strengthen, risky assets fluctuate.

15 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Forex
• Funds

Global Pandemic Shock

A fast-spreading illness shuts down travel and workplaces, as COVID-19 did in 2020: markets fall sharply within weeks, then central bank and government support drives an uneven recovery.

15 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Forex

Safe-Haven Demand for Gold

Record-run periods for gold: real yields fall, central banks buy, fear rises, and the oldest safe haven outruns nearly everything.

6 assets

• Commodities
• Funds
• Forex

Forced Selling at Large Funds

LTCM/Archegos-style leveraged fund collapses: forced liquidations hit seemingly unrelated assets at once as prime brokers pull the plug.

6 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Housing Market Crash

2007 subprime-style housing busts: home prices and mortgage credit unravel together, hitting banks and consumers long before the index bottoms.

9 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Index Concentration Risk

Periods when a handful of mega-cap names drive most of an index move: broad funds become far less diversified than they appear.

5 assets

• Funds
• Stocks

India's Market & Economic Decisions

Market-wide moves on India's exchanges (NSE and BSE) that come from inside India rather than from a single company: a Reserve Bank of India rate decision, a ruling by the market regulator SEBI, a budget or election surp…

12 assets

Inflation Surprises

Price data lands clearly away from what was expected, most often above it: people worry about what their money will buy, markets rethink how long interest rates stay high, and bonds, growth shares and gold can all move …

12 assets

• Stocks
• Crypto
• Commodities
• Forex
• Funds

Japan Bubble Burst

1990-style asset bubble deflations: a decades-long boom in stocks and land reverses into years of stagnation and falling prices.

10 assets

• Stocks
• Forex
• Funds

Japan Corporate Governance Reforms

Tokyo Stock Exchange governance reforms, record buybacks and foreign inflows that carried the Nikkei to new highs: trading houses, banks and exporters lead, and a stronger yen is the usual brake.

13 assets

• Stocks
• Funds
• Forex

South Korea's Market & Economic Decisions

Market-wide moves on the Korea Exchange (KOSPI and KOSDAQ) that come from inside South Korea rather than from a single company: a Bank of Korea rate decision, a new rule from the financial regulator, a political shock o…

12 assets

Social Media Stock Swings

Retail-driven short squeezes and social-media frenzies: heavily shorted names go vertical on no fundamentals, then round-trip just as fast.

5 assets

• Stocks

Middle East War Escalation

Israel-Iran-Gaza-style escalations in the Middle East: oil spikes on supply fear, gold catches a safe-haven bid, risk assets wobble.

13 assets

• Commodities
• Stocks
• Forex
• Crypto

Nuclear Incident

Fukushima-style nuclear accidents: energy policy reverses overnight, uranium and utilities reprice, natural gas fills the gap.

4 assets

• Commodities
• Stocks
• Forex

Oil Shipping Route Disruption

Threats to Hormuz, Suez or Red Sea shipping lanes: a large share of world oil passes through narrow straits, and closure fears reprice energy instantly.

11 assets

• Commodities
• Stocks

Oil Supply Shock

Oil suddenly becomes scarce because of an embargo, a war, a pipeline or refinery outage: crude jumps, fuel-heavy businesses such as airlines feel it first, and energy-importing currencies weaken.

9 assets

• Commodities
• Forex
• Stocks
• Funds

OPEC Production Decision

OPEC+ surprise cuts or floods: a single communiqué moves oil double digits and everything downstream of it, from airlines to inflation expectations.

10 assets

• Commodities
• Stocks
• Forex

Drug Research & Approvals

Major drug-trial readouts and regulator decisions (GLP-1 era): results can re-rate a drugmaker for years in either direction, while competitors and related sectors (food, medtech) reprice.

21 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Power Grid & Electricity Stress

Blackouts, grid failures, surging electricity demand from data centers or contested rate cases: utilities move on supply reliability and regulated pricing news.

27 assets

• Stocks
• Commodities
• Funds

High Rates and Real Estate

When long-term borrowing costs rise, property feels it first: mortgages get more expensive, buildings are valued lower, and real estate funds that pay steady income lose ground to bonds.

8 assets

• Funds
• Stocks

Recession Fears

Yield-curve inversions, weak jobs data and contraction prints: cyclical stocks and small caps sell off while long bonds and gold catch the safety bid.

13 assets

• Stocks
• Funds
• Commodities

Referendum Shock

Brexit-style surprise votes: polls said no, the result said yes; the home currency gaps down and global risk wobbles for days.

17 assets

• Forex
• Stocks
• Commodities
• Funds

Russian Default & Ruble Crisis

1998-style sovereign default in a major commodity exporter: bond markets seize up, leveraged funds blow out, flight to US Treasuries.

5 assets

• Forex
• Commodities
• Funds
• Stocks

Sanctions & Asset Freeze

2022 Russia-style sanction waves: reserves frozen, banks cut from SWIFT, commodities reroute; sanctioned-economy assets gap while alternatives get a bid.

13 assets

• Commodities
• Crypto
• Forex
• Stocks

Semiconductor Cycle & Chip Export Controls

The memory and logic chip cycle plus export controls on advanced chips: orders at ASML and Tokyo Electron, memory prices and Nvidia demand move chipmakers on three continents together.

16 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Sovereign Debt Default

Argentina-2001-style defaults: a government stops paying, the currency collapses, and locals flee into dollars and hard assets.

4 assets

• Forex
• Commodities
• Funds

Sovereign Debt Stress

Debt-ceiling standoffs, credit-rating downgrades and fiscal blowouts: confidence in government bonds wavers, gold and bitcoin attract the 'debasement' trade.

19 assets

• Funds
• Commodities
• Crypto
• Forex

Crypto ETF Developments

Filings, decisions and money flows around funds that hold the coin itself and trade like a share: an approval opens ordinary brokerage accounts, and prices often move on the expectation before a decision and again when …

3 assets

• Crypto
• Funds

Stablecoin De-pegging

A coin built to stay at one dollar loses that anchor, as TerraUSD did in 2022: holders rush for the exit, lending platforms freeze and the panic spreads to the rest of crypto.

5 assets

• Crypto

Supply Chain Disruption

Port blockages, shipping-route crises and component shortages: manufacturers with global chains suffer margin hits while freight and substitute suppliers benefit.

17 assets

• Stocks
• Commodities
• Funds

Swiss Franc & Central Bank Decisions

Swiss National Bank moves and safe-haven flows into the franc: a stronger franc squeezes Swiss exporters and banks while insurers and consumer staples hold up better.

10 assets

• Forex
• Stocks

Taper Tantrum

2013-style liquidity-withdrawal scares: the central bank hints at ending stimulus, bond yields jump, and emerging markets take the hardest hit.

5 assets

• Funds
• Forex
• Stocks
• Crypto

Tech Earnings Season

Big-tech earnings weeks: results and guidance from the largest companies move the whole index, not just their own price.

15 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Telecom & Media Developments

Spectrum auctions, streaming-war swings, telecom consolidation or a major content-rights shift: communication companies get re-rated on subscriber and pricing news.

22 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Terror Attack Shock

9/11-style terror shocks: markets sell off sharply on impact, airlines and insurers suffer most, and historically much of the drop was retraced within months.

5 assets

• Stocks
• Commodities
• Funds

Trade War & Tariffs

Tariff announcements, export controls and trade retaliation: supply-chain-exposed stocks, chip firms and exporter currencies reprice fast.

24 assets

• Stocks
• Forex
• Commodities
• Funds

Volatility Spike

2018 Volmageddon-style VIX explosions: short-volatility trades unwind violently and drag the whole index down with them.

4 assets

• Stocks
• Funds

Yen Carry Unwind

BoJ policy shifts and yen interventions triggering violent carry-trade unwinds: the yen surges and global risk assets funded in yen get sold hard.

14 assets

• Forex
• Stocks
• Funds