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Referendum Shock

Brexit-style surprise votes: polls said no, the result said yes; the home currency gaps down and global risk wobbles for days.

Asset classes: Forex, Stocks, Commodities, Funds

Dated events

  1. · Greek voters reject bailout terms in referendum, 61% vote No
    Greek citizens voted overwhelmingly to reject the terms of an international financial rescue package, surprising those who expected fear of leaving the euro to push a Yes vote. This raised the real possibility that Greece might be forced out of the euro currency, which made people nervous about the safety of European banks and governments. Within weeks, Greece ultimately accepted a new deal anyway, but the scare rattled markets for days.
  2. · Brexit referendum result: UK votes 52% to 48% to leave the EU
    Britain voted 52%-48% to leave the European Union, shocking most pollsters and betting markets that had predicted a Remain win. The British pound dropped sharply because investors suddenly feared the UK economy would shrink without easy access to European trade. In the following weeks, the pound stayed weak and the Bank of England cut interest rates to help the economy.
  3. · Colombian voters narrowly reject FARC peace deal in surprise referendum
    Colombian voters narrowly rejected a peace agreement with the FARC rebel group, stunning the government and international observers who had expected easy approval. The Colombian peso fell because the unexpected result raised fears of continued conflict and economic uncertainty in the country. A revised peace deal was eventually pushed through Congress weeks later without another public vote.
  4. · Italian voters reject Renzi's constitutional reform in referendum
    Italian voters rejected Prime Minister Renzi's plan to change how the government works by a wider margin than polls had suggested, and he announced his resignation within hours. People worried that Italy's political chaos could spread financial trouble across Europe, especially to Italian banks that were already struggling. Italian bank shares fell at first, then rebounded strongly within days on hopes that the government would rescue the most troubled bank.

Assets named in this scenario · 17

BAE SystemsBarclaysBritish Pound (GBP)Euro (EUR)Gold · Gold FuturesHSBCiShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETFiShares MSCI United Kingdom ETFKingfisherLegal & GeneralLloyds Banking GroupNatWest GroupSegroSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustTescoUnileverWhitbread

Recently triggered by news

Matched keywords: referendum result, brexit, surprise vote, exit vote, referandum, sürpriz oylama

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