Canadian Dollar (CAD)

The Canadian dollar has barely moved in a month while most peers slipped against the U.S. dollar.

What is going on right now?

The Canadian dollar sits in the lower third of its recent range against the U.S. dollar, closer to its weakest point than its strongest. A broad wave of U.S. dollar strength has been pushing most other currencies down.

What drives this pair?

Canada exports a lot of oil, so when oil prices shift, the Canadian dollar tends to follow. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, moves with American interest rates and its role as the world's go-to currency.

What stands out?

Over the past three months, the Canadian dollar held up better than most comparable currencies, finishing roughly 0.94 percentage points ahead of the group's middle. Reports of an oil supply shock could widen the gap between what Canada earns from exports and what it pays for imports.

What comes next?

The gap between the Bank of Canada's interest rate and the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate is the single biggest force pulling this pair one way or the other. U.S. inflation sitting at 3.7% has fueled talk of further American rate increases, which would widen that gap.