Recession Fears

Dated events

1. July 19, 2006 · 10-year yield falls below the 3-month rate, starting a months-long inversion
   Long-term interest rates fell below short-term rates, and this time they stayed there for months, a pattern historically linked to economic slowdowns. Home sales began declining and job growth slowed as the housing market cooled.
2. Sept. 15, 2008 · Lehman Brothers collapse triggers financial crisis
   A major investment bank failed, causing panic across the financial system. Stock prices dropped dramatically while investors rushed to buy government bonds and gold, which they viewed as safer places to keep their money.
3. March 16, 2020 · US stocks fall 12-13% on COVID-19 fears as investors buy Treasuries
   As lockdowns began worldwide, stock prices fell sharply in just days. Investors sold company shares and bought government bonds, fearing the economy would contract severely due to business closures.
4. Aug. 3, 2022 · US 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion deepens to widest since 2000
   The gap between long-term and short-term US interest rates grew to its widest since 2000, a pattern many investors read as a sign of possible economic weakness ahead.

Assets named in this scenario · 13

Financial Select Sector SPDR FundGold · Gold FuturesiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETFiShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETFiShares MSCI EAFE ETFiShares MSCI Germany ETFiShares MSCI Japan ETFiShares MSCI United Kingdom ETFiShares Russell 2000 ETFJPMorgan ChaseSPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustVanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF

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